AHI Monitors Washington Framing of U.S.–Turkey Relations at Atlantic Council Event
No. 11
WASHINGTON, DC — American Hellenic Institute Legislative Assistant Will Martin attended an Atlantic Council Turkey Program discussion titled “Turkey’s Evolving Role in a New Geopolitical and Security Order” on Tuesday, February 17, as part of AHI’s continued engagement in Washington policy discussions concerning Eastern Mediterranean security.
The conversation examined Turkey’s expanding geopolitical influence in the Middle East amid a shifting global landscape in which Ankara has gained regional prominence while the United States appears increasingly inward-focused. The panel featured Rich Outzen, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Turkey Program; Brenda Shaffer, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center; and William Wechsler, Senior Director of the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs. Pinar Dost, Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Turkey Program, moderated the program.
Framing Turkey’s Expanding Regional Role
Discussion focused on Ankara’s evolving foreign policy posture, its efforts to advance its energy ambitions, and the growing strength of Turkey’s defense industrial base.
Panelists emphasized that Turkey’s future influence will depend heavily on how regional actors perceive its actions. Speakers argued that Ankara must avoid “overplaying its hand” in several key theaters: in Syria, where it must demonstrate that it does not seek renewed domination; in its relations with Israel, where Ankara’s rhetoric has amplified concerns about Turkish encirclement; and among Gulf states that remain wary of perceived neo-Ottoman ambitions beyond former Ottoman territories. Panelists also urged Turkey to avoid entanglement in U.S. domestic politics.
Turkish Ambassador to the United States Sedat Önal, who attended the event, responded to concerns about Turkish antagonism and described Ankara’s approach as one of “regional ownership,” “self-reliance in defense,” and “proactive engagement.”
The Evolving U.S.–Turkey Relationship
A central theme of the discussion was the trajectory of U.S.–Turkey relations. Panelists pointed to increased engagement between Washington and Ankara during the second Trump administration and characterized the bilateral dynamic as having shifted “from crisis management to reconstruction.” Some panelists suggested that the United States could resume foreign military sales involving advanced defense systems in the near term. However, significant barriers remain, including Israeli concerns regarding Turkey’s access to sensitive U.S. defense technology and the absence of clear congressional consensus on such transfers.
Speakers repeatedly highlighted Turkey’s domestic defense industry. They noted that Turkey produces armaments more cost-effectively than many American and European firms and pointed to its competitively priced unmanned aerial systems, which approach Western counterparts in capability while maintaining lower production costs. Panelists maintained that Turkey possesses the eleventh best arms industry in the world.
Limited Discussion of Greece and Cyprus
Greece and Cyprus did not play a central role in the discussion. Panelists referenced Cyprus only in the context of U.S. energy company involvement in Eastern Mediterranean offshore development. Notably, panelists did not address the ongoing Turkish occupation of Cyprus.
Panelists mentioned Greece briefly in relation to European opposition to certain Turkish defense procurements, alongside France, and in response to an audience question. Panelists characterized Greek concerns about a resurgent and irredentist Turkey as primarily reflective of diaspora advocacy and claimed that those concerns differ from Greece’s policy priorities. Panelists also referenced the 3+1 partnership among Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and the United States while emphasizing Israel’s role as one of the region’s principal strategic actors.
“Attending this event was essential to assess how the U.S.–Turkey relationship is being framed and understood in Washington,” Martin stated. “Only by taking that measure can we continue our work of holding the U.S. and our allies to the standards of international law.”
AHI will continue to monitor developments in U.S.–Turkey relations and advocate for policies grounded in strategic stability and international law.
